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DeSart model in North Dakota: Trump is in the lead


The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model expects that Clinton will achieve 37.0% of the two-party vote share in North Dakota, whereas Trump will end up with 63.1%.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be interpreted with caution, since they can incorporate large biases. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, one should look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Looking at an average of North Dakota econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 59.4%. In comparison to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 3.7 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 3.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 59.7% in North Dakota. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 15.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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