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DeSart model in Louisiana: Trump with very clear lead

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The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 38.4% for Clinton and 61.6% for Trump in Louisiana.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, don't put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Louisiana econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 57.4%. This value is 4.2 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 57.7% of the two-party vote in Louisiana, which is 3.9 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 14.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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