DeSart model: Clinton in Florida trails by a small margin

The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.0% for Clinton and 52.1% for Trump in Florida.

Florida is traditionally a battleground state, where the Democrats and the GOP have historically won similar levels of support among voters. Hence, the election outcome in that state is regarded important in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models can contain substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Florida econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.6%. This value is 1.5 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 49.4% of the two-party vote in Florida, which is 2.7 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 4.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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