DeSart model: Trump with small lead in Florida

The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.0% for Clinton and 52.1% for Trump in Florida. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to win 52.1% of the vote.

In Florida, the popular vote is often decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly considered a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they may contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

Trump currently achieves 50.6% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Florida. This value is 1.5 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 2.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 49.4% in Florida. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 4.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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