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DeSart model in Montana: Trump with clear lead


The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model predicts that Clinton will collect 40.2% of the two-party vote share in Montana, while Trump will end up with 59.8%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models may incorporate large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 57.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Montana. This value is 2.6 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 2.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.1% in Montana. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 12.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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