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DeSart model in Montana: Trump with clear lead


The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model expects that Clinton will achieve 40.2% of the two-party vote share in Montana, whereas Trump will end up with 59.8%. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to gain 59.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 57.2% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Montana. Compared to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 2.6 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Montana, which is 2.7 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 12.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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