DeSart model in Indiana: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model predicts that Clinton will collect 42.1% of the two-party vote share in Indiana, while Trump will win 57.9%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Indiana has Trump at 57.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.7 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 2.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.5% in Indiana. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 10.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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