DeSart model: Trump in New York trails by a very clear margin

The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 62.4% of the two-party vote share in New York, while Trump will end up with 37.6%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in New York has Clinton at 60.7% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.7 percentage points lower.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 1.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.6% in New York. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 9.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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