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DeSart model: Trump with small lead


The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model's forecast is that Clinton will receive 48.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 51.9%. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, because they can include large biases. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, you should look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results vs. other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.7 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.7 percentage points.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 4.7 percentage points less and Trump has 4.7 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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