DeSart model in Washington: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 55.4% for Clinton and 44.6% for Trump in Washington. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was still predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, one should not focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Washington sees Clinton at 54.1% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 55.1% of the two-party vote in Washington, which is 0.3 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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