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DeSart model: Trump in Vermont trails by a very clear margin


The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model's forecast is that Clinton will receive 66.5% of the two-party vote share in Vermont, whereas Trump will end up with 33.5%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they often contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 60.4% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Vermont. In comparison to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 6.2 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 5.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.7% in Vermont. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 13.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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