DeSart model in Vermont: Clinton with very clear lead

The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model forecasts that Clinton will receive 66.5% of the two-party vote share in Vermont, whereas Trump will win 33.5%. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to win only 33.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they sometimes contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 60.4% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Vermont. Relative to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 6.2 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 5.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.7% in Vermont. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 13.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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