The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model expects that Clinton will achieve 21.8% of the two-party vote share in Utah, while Trump will end up with 78.2%. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to end up with 78.2% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models often contain substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, one should use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Utah has Trump at 71.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 6.8 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.
The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 61.4% of the two-party vote in Utah, which is 16.8 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 30.9 percentage points higher.