DeSart model: Trump with very clear lead in Utah

The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 21.8% for Clinton and 78.2% for Trump in Utah.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Trump currently achieves 71.4% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Utah. This value is 6.8 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 15.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 62.9% in Utah. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 31.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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