DeSart model: Clinton in Tennessee trails by a very clear margin

The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 36.7% for Clinton and 63.3% for Trump in Tennessee.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models may contain substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Tennessee econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 57.8%. This value is 5.6 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 56.1% of the two-party vote in Tennessee, which is 7.2 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 16.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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