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DeSart model: Trump with clear lead in South Carolina


The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model predicts that Clinton will receive 42.0% of the two-party vote share in South Carolina, while Trump will end up with 58.0%. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to collect 58.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of South Carolina econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 55.7%. This value is 2.3 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 2.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.4% in South Carolina. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 10.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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