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DeSart model: Trump in Rhode Island trails by a very clear margin


The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model predicts that Clinton will garner 62.1% of the two-party vote share in Rhode Island, while Trump will win 37.9%. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was still predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Rhode Island econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 61.9%. This value is 0.2 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 63.0% of the two-party vote in Rhode Island, which is 0.9 percentage points above the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 9.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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