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DeSart model: Trump in Oregon trails by a moderate margin


The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to this model, Clinton will collect 54.0% of the two-party vote share in Oregon, whereas Trump will end up with 46.0%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models often include large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Oregon econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.1%. This value is 0.1 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote in Oregon, which is 1.2 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 1.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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