The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to this model, Clinton will obtain 62.4% of the two-party vote share in New York, whereas Trump will win 37.6%. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to gain only 37.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, as they can incorporate substantial errors. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of New York econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 60.7%. In comparison to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.7 percentage points worse.
The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction
PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 60.6% of the two-party vote in New York, which is 1.8 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 9.7 percentage points higher.