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DeSart model in New York: Clinton with very clear lead


The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to this model, Clinton will obtain 62.4% of the two-party vote share in New York, whereas Trump will win 37.6%. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to gain only 37.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, as they can incorporate substantial errors. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of New York econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 60.7%. In comparison to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.7 percentage points worse.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 60.6% of the two-party vote in New York, which is 1.8 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 9.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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