DeSart model: Clinton with small lead in New Mexico

The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 53.0% for Clinton and 47.0% for Trump in New Mexico. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 47.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 52.6% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in New Mexico. This value is 0.4 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote in New Mexico, which is 0.3 percentage points above the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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