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DeSart model: Clinton with clear lead in New Jersey


The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model forecasts that Clinton will garner 56.9% of the two-party vote share in New Jersey, whereas Trump will win 43.2%. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 43.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be interpreted with caution, because they may include substantial biases. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, you should rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in New Jersey has Clinton at 57.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.4 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.4% in New Jersey. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 4.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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