Mississippi: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 41.4% for Clinton and 58.6% for Trump in Mississippi. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to end up with 58.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models often incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, you should consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Mississippi has Trump at 56.2% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 2.4 percentage points lower.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 4.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.8% in Mississippi. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 11.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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