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DeSart model: Trump in Michigan trails by a small margin

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The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model's forecast is that Clinton will collect 52.5% of the two-party vote share in Michigan, while Trump will end up with 47.5%. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was still predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Michigan econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.8%. This value is 1.3 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in Michigan, which is 1.3 percentage points above the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.2 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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