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DeSart model in Maryland: Clinton is in the lead


The DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 61.4% for Clinton and 38.6% for Trump in Maryland.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they often incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently runs at 61.1% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Maryland. In comparison to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.3 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 2.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 64.3% in Maryland. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 8.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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