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DeSart model in Louisiana: Trump with very clear lead


The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model expects that Clinton will obtain 38.4% of the two-party vote share in Louisiana, while Trump will end up with 61.6%. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to end up with 61.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Louisiana econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 57.4%. This value is 4.2 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 57.7% of the two-party vote in Louisiana, which is 3.9 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 14.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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