DeSart model: Clinton in Indiana trails by a clear margin

The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model's forecast is that Clinton will garner 42.1% of the two-party vote share in Indiana, while Trump will win 57.9%. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was predicted to obtain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they often contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Indiana has Trump at 57.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.7 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 2.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.5% in Indiana. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 10.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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