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DeSart model: Clinton with comfortable lead in Illinois

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The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to this model, Clinton will receive 53.6% of the two-party vote share in Illinois, while Trump will win 46.4%. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to collect only 46.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, you should consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Illinois econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 54.0%. Compared to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points higher.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 3.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.3% in Illinois. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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