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Idaho: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

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The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 30.4% for Clinton and 69.6% for Trump in Idaho.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, because they can include large biases. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Idaho econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 68.7%. In comparison to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 0.9 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 5.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 64.6% in Idaho. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 22.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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