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DeSart model: Clinton in Idaho trails by a very clear margin

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The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 30.4% for Clinton and 69.6% for Trump in Idaho. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to collect 69.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models often contain large errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Idaho econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 68.7%. In comparison to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 0.9 percentage points lower.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 64.6% of the two-party vote in Idaho, which is 5.0 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 22.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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