California: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model forecasts that Clinton will collect 59.9% of the two-party vote share in California, whereas Trump will win 40.1%. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 40.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they can incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 56.6% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in California. This value is 3.3 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 59.3% of the two-party vote in California, which is 0.6 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 7.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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