The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 34.8% for Clinton and 65.2% for Trump in Arkansas.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they often incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Arkansas sees Trump at 58.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 6.6 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 8.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.0% in Arkansas. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 18.0 percentage points higher.