The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 35.8% for Clinton and 64.2% for Trump in Alabama.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Alabama sees Trump at 59.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 4.9 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 4.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.2% in Alabama. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 17.0 percentage points higher.