DeSart model: Trump trails by a very clear margin

The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 91.9% for Clinton and 8.1% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 89.2%. Relative to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.8 percentage points lower.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 90.3% of the two-party vote, which is 1.6 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 39.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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