DeSart model in Rhode Island: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 62.1% for Clinton and 37.9% for Trump in Rhode Island.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 61.9% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Rhode Island. Relative to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.2 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 63.0% of the two-party vote in Rhode Island, which is 0.9 percentage points above the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 9.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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