DeSart model: Trump in Hawaii trails by a very clear margin

The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 70.1% for Clinton and 29.9% for Trump in Hawaii. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to gain only 29.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 64.1% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Hawaii. This value is 6.0 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 67.8% of the two-party vote in Hawaii, which is 2.3 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 17.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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