DeSart model in Oregon: Clinton is in the lead
The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 54.0% for Clinton and 46.0% for Trump in Oregon. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was still predicted to gain 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
Looking at an average of Oregon econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.1%. This value is 0.1 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.
The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction
PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote in Oregon, which is 1.2 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.3 percentage points higher.