DeSart model in Oregon: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 54.0% for Clinton and 46.0% for Trump in Oregon. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was still predicted to gain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Oregon econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.1%. This value is 0.1 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote in Oregon, which is 1.2 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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