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DeSart model: Clinton with clear lead in Delaware


The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to this model, Clinton will achieve 57.3% of the two-party vote share in Delaware, while Trump will win 42.7%. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was still predicted to achieve 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models may include substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Delaware econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 55.4%. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 55.2% of the two-party vote in Delaware, which is 2.1 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 4.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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