DeSart model: Trump in California trails by a clear margin

The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 59.9% for Clinton and 40.1% for Trump in California.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, since they often incorporate substantial biases. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in California sees Clinton at 56.6% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 3.3 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 59.3% of the two-party vote in California, which is 0.6 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 7.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.