DeSart model: Trump with very clear lead in Oklahoma

The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 30.0% for Clinton and 70.0% for Trump in Oklahoma.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they sometimes contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Oklahoma econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 63.4%. Relative to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 6.6 percentage points worse.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 7.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 62.7% in Oklahoma. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 22.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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