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DeSart model: Clinton in Oklahoma trails by a very clear margin

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The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 30.0% for Clinton and 70.0% for Trump in Oklahoma. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to win 70.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, as they often contain substantial errors. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently runs at 63.4% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Oklahoma. This value is 6.6 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 62.7% of the two-party vote in Oklahoma, which is 7.3 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 22.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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