DeSart model: Clinton in North Carolina trails by a moderate margin

The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to this model, Clinton will obtain 46.4% of the two-party vote share in North Carolina, while Trump will win 53.6%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in North Carolina sees Trump at 53.2% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 51.3% of the two-party vote in North Carolina, which is 2.3 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 6.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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