DeSart model in Missouri: Trump with clear lead

The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model's forecast is that Clinton will receive 42.5% of the two-party vote share in Missouri, while Trump will end up with 57.5%. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to end up with 57.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models often include substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Missouri has Trump at 55.1% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 2.5 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 2.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.7% in Missouri. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 10.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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