DeSart model: Clinton in Kentucky trails by a very clear margin

The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 35.5% for Clinton and 64.5% for Trump in Kentucky. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to end up with 64.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models can contain large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Kentucky sees Trump at 58.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 6.2 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 4.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 59.9% in Kentucky. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 17.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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