Kentucky: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 35.5% for Clinton and 64.5% for Trump in Kentucky.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Kentucky sees Trump at 58.3% of the two-party vote. In comparison to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 6.2 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 59.9% of the two-party vote in Kentucky, which is 4.6 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 17.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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