DeSart model: Clinton in Kansas trails by a very clear margin

The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model forecasts that Clinton will obtain 36.0% of the two-party vote share in Kansas, while Trump will win 64.0%. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to end up with 64.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models can include large errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Kansas econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 60.1%. Compared to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 3.9 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 57.8% of the two-party vote in Kansas, which is 6.2 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 16.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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