Kansas: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 36.0% of the two-party vote share in Kansas, while Trump will end up with 64.0%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Kansas has Trump at 60.1% of the two-party vote. In comparison to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 3.9 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 6.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.8% in Kansas. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 16.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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