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Georgia: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

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The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 43.4% for Clinton and 56.6% for Trump in Georgia. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to collect 56.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they can incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Georgia econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 54.5%. This value is 2.1 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote in Georgia, which is 4.0 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 9.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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