DeSart model: Clinton in Arizona trails by a clear margin

The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 42.7% for Clinton and 57.3% for Trump in Arizona.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, one should not be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, one should rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Arizona sees Trump at 57.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.1 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 3.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.1% in Arizona. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 10.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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