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DeSart model: Trump with clear lead in Alaska

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The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will receive 39.9% of the two-party vote share in Alaska, while Trump will win 60.1%. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to collect 60.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Alaska econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 64.6%. Compared to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 4.5 percentage points higher.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 0.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.8% in Alaska. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 12.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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