DeSart model in Alabama: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 35.8% for Clinton and 64.2% for Trump in Alabama. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to collect 64.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models may contain substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, one should consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Alabama econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 59.3%. Relative to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 4.9 percentage points lower.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 60.2% of the two-party vote in Alabama, which is 4.0 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 16.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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